Look, I get it. The potential of XRP reaching $100 is very tempting. We’ve all read the articles, watched the Youtube experts, the click-bait charts. So enough with the hopium, and let’s look reality squarely in the eye. An $100 XRP is not only unlikely, it’s mathematically impossible in the short term. Chasing that dream could have devastating unintended consequences.

$100 XRP Needs A Miracle

The core problem? Market capitalization. Let's break it down. There are currently about 99 billion XRP tokens in circulation. At $100 per token, XRP’s market cap would be an astounding $9.9 trillion. That's trillion with a "T." And that’s more than three times the current market cap of Bitcoin. In fact, the development dwarfs the entire crypto market today. You might as well state that a chihuahua should be heavier than an elephant. Possible? Maybe in a cartoon. Realistic? Absolutely not.

And don’t let anybody fool you into believing that burning Ripple’s 36.8 billion escrowed stash fixes this. Even with just 63 billion XRP left, we’re still looking at a $6.3 trillion market cap. What we need is a crypto market boom the like of which would dwarf even 2021.

Token Burns, Government Donations: Illusions

Folks are clamoring with suggestions such as introducing token burns. Some are even proposing that we donate XRP to the U.S. government, born of an odd offshoot of the Trump tie-in and a purported crypto treasury. Seriously? These, however, are not honest solutions, they’re distractions. Ripple's own CTO, David Schwartz, has essentially said token burns wouldn't make a dent, referencing Stellar's experience. Bailing out a rubber duck with a fire hose. It’s like bailing out the Titanic with a teacup.

The mania behind token burns is more than a little bit like public companies buying back their own stock. It provides a temporary solution by being able to artificially inflate the price short-term which does nothing for the underlying fundamentals. It's financial engineering, not genuine value creation. Furthermore, if you have to constantly burn tokens on a schedule, then that’s a sign of desperation. This practice can discourage well-heeled, discerning investors who are seeking long-term strategies that promote sustainable growth.

Chasing $100 Hurts XRP's Utility

Here's the scary part: obsessing over a $100 price tag distracts from what actually makes XRP valuable: its utility in cross-border payments. Ripple’s technology could change the entire landscape of global money transfers. It creates a new layer on top of payments to make transactions faster, cheaper and more efficient.

If Ripple spends all its time trying to engineer a massive price spike, they risk alienating the very institutions they need to adopt XRP for its intended purpose. Imagine a bank saying, "We were going to use XRP for international transfers, but it looks like Ripple is more interested in becoming the next Dogecoin. We'll pass."

This pursuit of unrealistic gains opens the door to dangerous territory. Potential regulatory scrutiny. Pumping up the price of a cryptocurrency is often called market manipulation. Continuing to pursue such a misguided and unsafe practice puts you in an extremely precarious legal position. The SEC is already watching Ripple closely. Do we want to provide them with additional ammunition?

It’s as if a promising startup got stuck chasing a vanity metric instead of developing their core product. All the hype in the world won't matter if the underlying technology doesn't deliver real-world value.

Build Value, Not Just Hype

Instead of chasing a pipe dream, Ripple should double down on what they do best: developing and promoting XRP's utility.

  • Focus on partnerships: Get more financial institutions on board with using XRP for cross-border payments.
  • Expand use cases: Explore new applications for XRP beyond payments, such as smart contracts or decentralized finance (DeFi).
  • Advocate for clear regulations: Work with governments and regulators to create a clear and consistent framework for cryptocurrencies.

Let's be clear: I'm not saying XRP is worthless. I do think that when we look way out into the future, I think it has the potential to be a very valuable technology. Together, we can realize that potential, but only if we get back to the basics. If we continue to pursue a mirage price target, we’ll never achieve it.

Stop waiting for widespread adoption and start pushing for actual value. Heck, that’s the only way XRP will ever take a bite out of sustainable, long-term success. And honestly? That’s worth much more than a temporary bump to $100. Let's be realistic, and not emotional.