XRP had an extremely good day on April 19, increasing 1.25% and settling at a price of $2.0862. This increase made up for the 0.23% drop seen yesterday, resulting in a dramatic change of fortune. In addition to beating the broader crypto market, which was up 0.95%, XRP ended a four-day losing streak. Ultimately, the near-term trajectory of XRP will hinge on these important developments. That takes into consideration the SEC’s recent appeal decisions, as well as the changing regulatory landscape.
Technical Analysis and Price Targets
XRP is presently trading under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while still being traded above the 200-day EMA. This technical layout would point to a bearish sentiment in the short term, but long-term support is holding strong. A sustained move above the breakout at the 50-day EMA will be the first indication that the bulls are ready to challenge the March 19 high at $2.5925.
If XRP successfully breaches the $2.5925 mark, the next key price target would be the January 16 high of $3.3999. This is the bullish scenario, which counts on positive regulatory developments and a deepening confidence from the market. The SEC’s litigation tactics, Ripple’s cross-appeal tactics, and the potential for XRP-spot ETF approvals are all going to have massive impacts. This is what will push the next big XRP price pump.
XRP may actually explode up to $5 price target. Much of this surge is predicated on ETF approvals and a robust continuation of institutional demand. All of these factors have the potential to dramatically increase market capitalization and demand from investors.
Regulatory Hurdles and Legal Battles
XRP’s price action has been heavily impacted by the proceedings of the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case, which came back into the spotlight recently. This case, in addition to other regulatory actions, darkens the climate for the cryptocurrency market. The already-complex U.S. crypto regulatory landscape complicates XRP’s prospects even further, tacking on additional uncertainty and adding substantial risk of adoption-repelling volatility.
“We finally got a copy of the Oregon AG complaint. If there was any doubt about the motivation behind it, look no further than section 9, where it 1) omits Judge Failla’s order granting interlocutory appeal of the SEC case; 2) omits any mention of Judge Torres’ decision in XRP; and 3) bears the stamp of the two private law firms brought on to profit from this suit; 4) labels the Chairman of the SEC as a ‘crypto lobbyist’ and 5) decries the reassignment of Gensler’s lead lawyer to the IT department. Not exactly subtle.” - Paul Grewal
The Oregon complaint, initiated by the State of Oregon, has reignited regulatory tensions and revived the SEC’s case against Coinbase. This legal challenge further complicates the already complicated regulatory landscape.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
A number of events have the potential to shake things up and affect XRP’s future price. The most optimistic scenario would see a very public withdrawal of the SEC appeal and a positive court ruling on the matter. Such a positive decision could push XRP to its historical peak of $3.5505, thanks to the rekindled trust of investors and market euphoria.
A bearish case is further delays in appeal withdrawal, unfavorable court decisions or ETF rejections. Should they occur, XRP may find itself falling back below the $1.50 level, a sign of worsened market confidence and higher regulatory worries. The combination of all these dynamics will ultimately determine XRP’s path over the next few months.
