As one of the largest and most popular cryptocurrencies today, XRP has been an enduring topic of debate and hype in the crypto space. This excitement is being fueled by a substantial whale accumulation. Technical analysis patterns that are looking very promising and renewed hopes for a possible Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) are contributing to the buzz. Issues remain around the potential overvaluation and historical cyclical patterns indicating a correction is overdue. BlockchainShock takes a look at what might push XRP to $30—and just as important, what might not.

Factors Driving XRP's Potential Surge

A few other factors are coming together to make this a potentially bullish outlook for XRP. These can range from technical indicators to fundamental developments.

Whale Accumulation

And it would take a lot of buying on the part of these large-scale, or “whale” investors to meaningfully affect supply. This gathering together indicates an extreme optimism of XRP to be successful. These whales are busily stacking all the big tokens including Bitcoin and Polkadot. The aggressiveness of this behavior further demonstrates a growing trend of institutional investment interest in the crypto market. Nature’s Miracle also recently announced a $20 million XRP treasury. This move is a huge vote of confidence for XRP’s medium-term prospects.

Technical Analysis: A Double Bottom Pattern

Technical analysts have made a case for a strong seven-year double bottom pattern developing in XRP’s price chart. That pattern, which macro strategist Gert van Lagen of FFW Financial Services AG says is a long-term bullish breakout. The formation established a deep W-like base that covers the entirety of the 2018–2024 bear market. It created twin lows in the sub-$0.20 to $0.30 range and has since come back to a horizontal neckline just over the $2 level. The pattern was able to break out above its neckline around $1.80 and has since retested it, confirming the breakout.

Retrospectively, today’s pattern looks very much like XRP’s 2014-2017 price action that formed a double bottom pattern. That same pattern from before resulted in a parabolic rally of 100,000%. Using the 2.00 Fibonacci extension of the pattern, the measured-move projection gives a $34 target by mid-2026. In addition to the recent market rally, technical analysts have identified bullish chart patterns that could further increase XRP’s breakout potential. One major pattern they’ve discovered is the cup-and-handle pattern.

ETF Speculation and Regulatory Progress

The latest round of bullish XRP ETF speculation has been pumping up the asset’s price momentum. As of mid-June, analysts have been putting the probability of ETF approval at 85% in 2025, though Bloomberg’s Eric Blechunas recently reiterated his 95% approval probability. Increasing legal clarity and Ripple’s recent launch of the regulated stablecoin RLUSD is fueling renewed interest in XRP. The promise of an ETF approval has contributed to increased volatility in XRP’s price, as traders have intently monitored regulatory news.

Concerns and Historical Patterns

Despite the bullish signals, it's crucial to acknowledge the concerns surrounding XRP's potential overvaluation and historical price behavior. XRP’s price has already jumped 470% year-to-date on hopes for a possible ETF approval in 2025. XRP price is currently making a strong move to consolidate above the support level of $3.27. As of now, resistance looks to be around $3.60 and $6.

Analyst Jaydee warns that XRP’s price could repeat what it did in the past. Attend and expect a jagged, parabolic upswing, a crash of over 90% which will romantically ensnare many who join well after the top. XRP’s Rally of 2017 In 2017, XRP exploded with an amazing increase of 70,000% at the height of the rally. Shockingly, just weeks after hitting its apex, it nosedived 95%. Jaydee’s annotated slide shows the comparison of the historic setup to the current long-term derived pattern. Most notably, he points out the same consolidation patterns and breakout structures, giving a worst-case 95% crash scenario, similar to what played out in January 2018.

Historical Volatility

XRP is no stranger to unexpected price spikes, only to quickly descend into heavy correction. XRP is a prime example, reaching a peak of $3.84 and then crashing down to as low as $0.8978 within just 14 days. EGRAG even proposed that XRP could reach as high as $27 and then fall to $0.80, or go as high as $9 and then to $1.30.

Overall, the future of XRP appears to be a mixed bag of bullish and bearish developments. The upside potential for big wins is tremendous. Investors would be wise to proceed with caution given the past volatility and possibility of a large correction.