Monero Orphan Blocks: Is Qubic A Real Threat Or Just Noise?

As you can imagine, the Monero community is excited, and honestly, a little jittery. CFB, the Qubic figurehead, has been very public about their plans to take over Monero’s hashrate. As a consequence, we’ve unfortunately seen a sudden increase in orphan blocks. My goodness, is this a brilliant coordinated attack or one heck of a FUD campaign. So let’s look into these new data and raise the signal well above the noise. In the crypto world, perception becomes reality—invented perception and all.

Are Orphans Blocks Statistically Significant?

Five orphan blocks in 24 hours (between August 6th and 7th, 2025), within the last 720 blocks, that's the headline. Blockchain networks, as we know them today, are inherently probabilistic systems. Orphan blocks happen. Ricardo Spagni believes that the fee falls into the bell curve. Is he right?

Let's look back. We need historical data. What’s the overall orphan block rate for the last year? Over the past five years? If we determine that seeing five orphans a day is still within what’s considered the standard deviation, we need to calm down. All those Chicken Littles who are yelling that “the sky is falling” need to calm down. If instead we find a large statistical deviation—the kind for which we can reject the null hypothesis—we need to begin asking much harder questions.

If the individual little asterisk on August 6th/7th is far, far above the trend line, then we have a problem. If it's just another blip, move along.

Orphan Block Frequency Over Time     ^     |  10 -|             *     |           * *   8 -|         *   *     |       *     *   6 -|     *       *     * *     |   *         *   * *   *   4 -| *           * *       *     |*             *         *   2 -|-------------------------*---     |________________________________> Time          (Jan 2024)             (Aug 8, 2025)  * = Number of orphan blocks per day.

The key here is context. Let’s put the current orphan rate in some historical context. Then, we can do some fancy statistical analysis to test whether it’s actually anomalous.

Four of the five orphan blocks were mined by a miner using the name “unknown”. That does raise eyebrows. The fact that the “unknown” miner’s block discovery share increased from 2% to 8% is worrisome as well. Why the sudden secrecy? What are they hiding?

Unknown Miner: Red Flag or Coincidence?

Selfish mining conspiracy theory enters the picture. 'Untraceable' suggests this is what's happening. Selfish mining is a tactical maneuver. It is only profitable under the condition that you have control of more than 33% of the network’s hashrate.

So, the question becomes: does Qubic, or CFB, control enough hashrate to make selfish mining profitable on Monero?

CFB’s admonishment to exchanges to prepare for orphan blocks from August 2nd-31st is pouring gasoline on the fire. Depending on your perspective it’s either a incredibly prescient warning or a cynical bid to further shake up the market. Given his history with Bytecoin (We’re looking at you pre-mine!), skepticism is definitely warranted.

Let’s get a little creative here. Could there be other explanations?

We should be looking into these other possible explanations before knee-jerk reacting.

• Network Congestion: A sudden surge in Monero transactions could lead to increased network latency and, consequently, more orphan blocks.
• Mining Pool Fluctuations: A major mining pool experiencing technical difficulties could lead to a temporary redistribution of hashrate, favoring smaller or "unknown" miners.
• Plain Old Luck: Sometimes, things just happen in a probabilistic system. Coincidences occur.

Here's where the unexpected connection comes in. Remember the early days of Bitcoin mining? Everyone started mining with their CPUs, then people moved to GPUs, and then finally ASICs. The hardware arms race was on! Qubic, with its disruptive alternative computing model, might be seeking to revolutionize the mining landscape.

Qubic's Real Goal: Hashrate or Headlines?

Is that their primary goal? Or is it a clever marketing ploy?

CFB is a showman. He knows how to generate buzz. Painting Monero as a scary, horrifying thing will direct media attention away from Monero and toward Qubic. It doesn’t take much truth to stoke this narrative and drive up clicks.

Think of it like this: a small, struggling artist creates a controversial piece that attacks a famous masterpiece. The goal isn't necessarily to create a better piece of art; it's to get people talking about their art.

Is Qubic really as nefariously intending to shank Monero in the cryptoknees, or are they just misappropriating our name to raise awareness for their own cause?

Considering all of these factors, as of August 8th, 2025, it’s premature to conclude that Qubic is a significant threat to Monero. For the time being, these immediate risks seem low, but that’s all the more reason to be vigilant. The Monero community should be very concerned with the orphan block rate. Furthermore, they MUST explore what the “unknown” miner is doing and rebut CFB’s assertions with a jaundiced eye.

Don't panic. Do your research. Question everything. And keep in mind, crypto world, that the most valuable crypto asset isn’t Bitcoin or Monero—the most valuable crypto asset is a free and critical press.

The answer, as always, lies in the data.

The Bottom Line:

As of August 8th, 2025, it's too early to definitively say whether Qubic poses a real threat to Monero. The immediate risks appear minimal, but vigilance is advised. The Monero community needs to continue monitoring the orphan block rate, investigate the activities of the "unknown" miner, and critically evaluate CFB's claims.

Don't panic. Do your research. Question everything. And remember, in the world of crypto, the most valuable asset is not Bitcoin or Monero; it's critical thinking.