Eric Trump is at it again, telling the world to buy the dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He gave the green light in February, and he’s given the green light again today. Before you jump in headfirst, let's talk about something more important than tweets and headlines: data. Finally, perhaps let’s allow some imperfect history to provide a sobering lesson.

Trump's Track Record Worth Examining?

Let's be clear: I'm not saying Eric Trump causes market dips. That's simplistic. Ignoring the past is foolish. In February, he touted BTC and ETH. In under 45 days, Bitcoin dropped by over 16%, and Ethereum cratered a shocking 41%. The media are reporting that this decrease was a result of Donald Trump’s since-abandoned proposed tariffs. There was chillingly ironic musical timing in that.

Then, once the market had indeed rebounded, Eric Trump reposted his early advice, reveling in witty vindication. Here’s where I start to get skeptical. In a metaphorical rising tide, everyone looks like a genius. But what about the people who purchased based on his first alarm and panic sold at the bottom as the market dipped? Did they feel vindicated?

Here's the thing: markets always recover eventually. The question then becomes, at what cost to the retail investor?

Correlation Isn't Necessarily Causation, Right?

Absolutely. Just because my neighbor’s rooster crows before dawn doesn’t mean he brings the sun up. Just as it is too easy to lay the blame for a collapse of our stock market at Eric Trump’s feet. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory shifts, whale play – all these make a huge difference.

Here's where the "rhyming" comes in. Human psychology is a factor. Fear and greed drive markets. Anyone who carries a big enough platform has a lot of power. When they issue an official public statement, they have the ability to magnify these trends that are already happening, for better or for worse.

Think of it like this: a single snowflake doesn't cause an avalanche. However, many snowflakes, in the right circumstances, cause a catastrophic avalanche. Is Eric Trump a single snowflake? Maybe. But he’s a snowflake blown up by a giant megaphone.

And, naturally, there’s the built-in conflict of interest. Eric Trump is co-founder of World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture with huge Ethereum holdings. His family has skin in the game. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify his advice, but it requires a close look. So is he just a naive actor who’s trying to do good by investors, or is he just pumping his own bags.

Quantify the Risk, or Get Burned

Hey, I’m not trying to dictate how you should spend your philanthropic dollars. As you may recall, I’m the one advising you to doubt everything. Relatedly, don’t believe anyone—including us—hook line and sinker, and particularly in the fast-moving, wild west world of crypto.

Eric Trump predicted Bitcoin would hit $170,000. It's currently hovering around $114,440.16. Maybe he'll be right. Maybe he'll be wrong. Download the full report Taming Your Future financial future shouldn’t be built on the back of “maybes.”

  • Conduct Your Own Research: Don't rely on tweets or headlines. Dive into the whitepapers, analyze the market trends, and understand the underlying technology.
  • Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Crypto is notoriously volatile. Can you stomach a 50% drop? A 70% drop? Be honest with yourself.
  • Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially a basket as unpredictable as crypto.
  • Consider Professional Advice: A qualified financial advisor can help you develop a sound investment strategy tailored to your individual needs and risk tolerance.

The bottom line? Caveat emptor. Don’t let the hype, let the data drive your decisions. History doesn’t repeat, but it most definitely rhymes. And at worst, those rhymes can be excruciating if your ear is not tuned in. Just because the market recovers from a crash doesn’t mean bad advice suddenly becomes golden. It just means the market rebounded. Don't confuse luck with skill.

Benzinga's disclaimer is clear: they don't provide investment advice. Neither do I. This is personal opinion, to be sure, filtered though the lens of data and a helpful measure of skepticism. Act accordingly.

Benzinga's disclaimer is clear: they don't provide investment advice. Neither do I. This is an opinion, filtered through the lens of data and a healthy dose of skepticism. Act accordingly.