Henrik Zeberg calls it a bubble. He sees a Dot-com repeat. And he casually tosses off terms like “expanding diagonal” and “bearish RSI divergence”. To be frank, I think he’s missing the boat on all of this. The real crypto revolution is happening today and right now in Southeast Asia. This is not your grandfather’s tulip mania, and bringing old economic models to bear on this new space is, uh, womp womp— wrong.

Southeast Asia's Crypto Leap Isn't Speculation

Zeberg highlights a very high Market Cap to GDP ratio – 226% including crypto – as proof of overvaluation. Okay, fine. GDP is a lagging indicator. More importantly, it fails to consider the future potential of blockchain technology, particularly across emerging markets.

Think about it. Flip through nations such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam and you discover a startling statistic—more than 90% of people remain unbanked. Crypto isn’t a speculative asset to them, it’s a lifeline. It’s a path to access financial services they’ve never had access to before. It’s a model for sending remittances globally without being ripped off by money transfer companies like Western Union and MoneyGram. It’s an opportunity to engage in a global economy that they have long been shut out from.

Just the other day I had the pleasure of hanging out with one such entrepreneur in Jakarta. He even uses DeFi protocols to take out loans for his small business. He told me, "The banks wouldn't even look at me. Crypto gave me a chance." That's not a bubble. That's empowerment. That's the future of finance in Southeast Asia, and it's a future Zeberg's outdated models completely ignore.

Monetary Policy? Consider the Alternatives

Like many tech booms, years of accommodative monetary policy laid the groundwork for crypto’s breakout, writes Fellow Adam Zeberg. Sure, that's part of the story. What's the alternative? Continuing the outdated status quo system that favors the well-connected rich while forcing everyone else to pay their way across a completely broken system?

Throughout Southeast Asia, a distrust of traditional financial systems is growing. For one, they have experienced the effect of government policies and currency devaluations on obliterating their livelihoods. Here crypto, with its decentralized and transparent nature, is a compelling alternative. It’s a great hedge against inflation. It’s a better store of value. It provides an escape hatch from a system that many are losing faith in.

It’s not all about the almighty dollar. It’s about empowering yourself to become the master of your own financial destiny. It is about creating a more equitable and inclusive financial ecosystem. That’s because that’s a pretty powerful incentive that can cut through speculative bubbles. Zeberg would do well to spend less time poring over such charts. Instead, he needs to listen to and learn from the millions of people who are actively using and benefiting from crypto already. He might be surprised.

RSI Weakening? Timeframe is Irrelevant

Okay, let's talk about Zeberg's technical analysis. He observes a “broadening diagonal” and a “weakening RSI” hinting at an impending correction. Look, I like technical analysis – I think it’s a good tool to have in your toolbox. It’s a market snapshot in time, and it’s becoming more easily swayed by pure market sentiment.

Rather, it’s completely unreasonable to emphasize weekly or monthly time horizons. We’re talking about technology that moves at the speed of lightening! Crypto moves fast. What appears to be a “weakening RSI” on a monthly chart could be a short-term retracement ahead of the next advance. And these indicators don’t take into account the huge wave of institutional investors who bring a very different, long-term gameplan.

I saw a tweet from crypto analyst Willy Woo the other day that perfectly sums this up: "Trying to predict Bitcoin's price using traditional technical analysis is like trying to predict the weather by looking at tea leaves."

Zeberg says short-term gains are possible. Okay, great. Then he cautions in the direst terms of an impending “blow-off top” triggering global recession. Fear mongering much? Now – full disclosure on my part – I do think blockchain and crypto are here to stay. They are democratizing access to finance, empowering the unbanked and underbanked, and paving the way for more inclusive economic growth—particularly in regions such as Southeast Asia.

Is there risk involved? Absolutely. The potential rewards are tremendous, more than outweighing the risks. I have never been more optimistic about the creativity and perseverance of this community to build a better tomorrow. I’m not taking any bets with Henrik Zeberg’s climate apocalypse oleaginous, scare-mongering foresights. Whether you’re in the U.S. It’s definitely not a bubble.