I've been crunching the numbers, folks, and what I'm seeing in the Pokemon TCG market should make even the most seasoned investor uneasy. We're not just talking about a bit of inflated pricing; we're looking at a house of cards built on a foundation of speculative crypto gains. A 90% crash? The data doesn’t merely indicate that, it hollers it.
Crypto Profits Fueling Card Mania?
Let's be blunt: the Pokemon TCG market's current state is absurd. Terrible pull rates, sealed product that’s nearly unattainable and single cards going for amounts that could buy a house down payment? This isn’t organic growth, this is a total fever dream powered by something much more dangerous. And that something else? Cryptocurrency.
Think about it. The timeline lines up perfectly. The recent gigantic crypto boom, the explosion in Pokemon TCG prices. It's not a coincidence. Alpha Investments, a larger player in the TCG world, just confirmed something huge. They’re now witnessing massive transactions, such as purchases over $25k, being completed using Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins. That's not sustainable. That game is a far more valuable use of that money. It’s being released into a market that is already saturated.
Here’s the surprising link that everybody else is getting wrong. License plate speculation goosing the market It’s not merely crypto profiteers entering the market and purchasing cards. It's about the mindset. The world of crypto is a speculative one, built on the hope of overnight wealth. Unfortunately, that same get-rich-quick mentality has spread to all facets of the TCG market—hollowing out the once cherished hobby and community.
Unsustainable Velocity, Unexperienced Investors
Call it the “velocity of change,” the rate at which Pokemon card prices are going through the roof, is frankly terrifying. After the low tide of May, a relief rally that misled people into thinking things were better, we’re witnessing the real low-water mark today. It was just a blip. The root cause – the crypto-fueled speculation – was unchanged.
This isn’t as simple as the Beanie Baby fad, or even the sports card explosion of the 90s. This is something different, something more dangerous. Why? Because those previous bubbles were fueled by real enthusiasm, though mislocated. Outside money is making this bubble a lot worse. One thing is for sure, investors see Pokémon cards as nothing more than digital assets that just happen to have a physical form.
And who are these investors? Some have only been in the hobby for under a year. They have no idea what the market looks like, what sets were like in previous years, what cards will be valuable long-term. They’re just looking for a pump and dump, the next big score. They’re the digital equivalent of day traders, only their stock is a Charizard. This is a recipe for disaster.
Here's a chart I put together showing the correlation between Bitcoin price and the PSA 10 Charizard Base Set card price. Notice a trend?
Date | Bitcoin Price | PSA 10 Charizard Price |
---|---|---|
January 2020 | $7,000 | $5,000 |
January 2021 | $35,000 | $25,000 |
November 2021 | $68,000 | $45,000 |
January 2023 | $17,000 | $20,000 |
Scalpers, flippers, “rip-and-shippers,” crypto-enthusiasts — all of them deserve a place in line for their complicity in this sad state of affairs. By fostering an atmosphere of scarcity and FOMO (fear of missing out), they’ve pushed prices to absurd heights. The fingers don’t point just at their feet.
Who's to Blame, and What's Next?
The Pokemon Company (TPC) isn't innocent either. They do not have direct levers to pull related to the secondary market. Their awful pull rates and inability to rise to meet demand have created a breeding ground for these bad actors to flourish in these circumstances. Collectors are eager, and eager collectors will pay exorbitant sums.
We're part of the problem too. As we continue to fill our taxpayer dollars at those inflated prices, we further seed that cycle. We're enabling this madness.
So, what's the solution? Honestly, I don't know. TPC will keep cranking out those beloved expansions, and collectors will keep snapping them up at whatever price. TPC knows that. But here's what I do know: this can't last. The data is clear. The unsustainable velocity of price increases, the influx of inexperienced investors, the reliance on crypto profits – it all points to one thing: a major crash.
A 90% drop? It's not just possible, it's probable. When? That's the million-dollar question. Mark my words: when the crypto bubble bursts, the Pokemon TCG market will come crashing down with it. Like more than a trace and many people are going to take a big hit on money.
Maybe this sounds like fear-mongering. Maybe you think I'm wrong. I implore you to consider the full picture of the data. So don’t let your get-off-my-lawn-ism, your devotion to the hobby, cloud your judgment about what the future holds. Protect yourself. Be careful. Don’t find yourself left holding the bag when the music stops. Trust me, the music will stop. The question is, will you be prepared?
Maybe this sounds like fear-mongering. Maybe you think I'm wrong. But I urge you to look at the data. Don't let your nostalgia, your love for the hobby, blind you to the reality of the situation. Protect yourself. Be careful. And don't get caught holding the bag when the music stops. Because trust me, the music will stop. The question is, will you be prepared?