We've seen Bitcoin blaze past $116,000. The headlines are screaming “new all-time high,” the crypto-sphere is all abuzz, and you’d think we’d solved world hunger by this point. But hold on before you refinance your home to invest in Bitcoin, let’s take a step back and examine the data. Because, quite honestly, the math is yelling something different altogether.

Data Dumps Don't Tell All

For what it’s worth, Bitcoin’s trading volume did increase 62% to $96 billion. Open interest is at an all-time high of $81.35 billion, +2.86%. The total crypto market cap is up to $3.60 trillion in this new bullish run. But let's dissect this.

Trading Volume: Is it organic demand or a frenzy fueled by fear of missing out (FOMO)? A 62% increase feels much more like the opposite.

Open Interest: A double-edged sword. Sure, more open interest equals greater liquidity, but it equals greater leverage. And greater leverage increases both upside and downside risks. Remember 2021? The house of cards built on leverage?

Ethereum's creeping up (9.8%) while Bitcoin's dominance is slipping (below 64%). Is this the start of the “alt-season” everybody’s been joking about, or something more permanent with the rotation of capital? And what’s left for Bitcoin once the spotlight moves?

This is the most telling. Nearly $1 billion of that value was liquidated in 24 hours, with nearly $970 million in short positions liquidated. This isn't healthy market activity. This is a classic short squeeze, a hallmark of tremendous volatility and manipulation. It’s the digital equivalent of seeing a bunch of sharks circle blood in the water.

Tariff Shrug Off? Really?

The story is that the crypto markets are “shrugging off” the fact that Trump wants to put a 35% tariff on goods coming from Canada. Stock futures dipped, but Bitcoin soared. Convenient, isn't it?

I don't buy it for a second. This “shrug off” comes off as a contrived narrative. It's like saying people are buying umbrellas because they like the color, not because it's raining.

Consider this: who benefits from this narrative? Those who stand to gain the most, those already massively invested in Bitcoin, wanting to pump it up and then dump it on unsuspecting newcomers.

Perhaps it’s not that investors are shrugging off tariffs. But perhaps someone is trying to use this tariff news as a convenient smokescreen. Or maybe they’re just attempting to obfuscate the other, more unsavory dealings going on in the crypto space. Market manipulation, anyone?

The Bubble Bursts, Always

As our Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently flashing “Greed,” extreme greed may be near. Looking historically, that’s been a pretty darned reliable sell signal.

This is the highest long/short ratio measured on any exchange, but is as low as below 1 for Bitcoin underbetting the asset more than it is betting for it. Taken together, this indicates a mounting positive consensus that the rally is not sustainable, and a correction is inevitable. And it’s these shorts that are the fodder for the next short squeeze, and the next cascading wave of liquidations.

Here's the hard truth: every asset class has bubbles. Tulip mania, the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble. And crypto is no different. Or, not so much—to date, the history of Bitcoin has been full of boom-and-bust cycles. And every time you hear “this time IS different.” It never is.

Remember the Dot-com bubble? There were companies with no revenues and no realistic business model yet they were trading at insane valuations. Sound familiar? The parallels with a lot of the more speculative corners of the crypto market are chilling. Dogecoin soaring alongside Bitcoin? That's not innovation; that's pure, unadulterated speculation.

Protect Yourself and Your Money

So, sustainable rally or bubble? The data suggests the latter. The market is overheated, over-leveraged, and well-past due for a correction.

I'm not saying Bitcoin is worthless. I'm saying be extremely cautious. Don't get caught up in the hype. Only invest what you can afford to lose. Oh, and for God’s sake, do your own research.

This isn't financial advice, of course. But take this advice as a caution from someone who's watched this flick in a previous life. The market’s emotional, and you have to insulate yourself from it.

Maybe Bitcoin will continue its meteoric rise. Maybe Ethereum will hit $4,000. Remember what goes up must come down. In the crypto market, those drops can be brutally spectacular.

Arguably the greatest concern about the crypto market is its lack of regulatory oversight. This is where government has an important role to step in and protect investors from fraud and manipulation. If not, the next crash will be just as agonizing.

So, stay informed, stay skeptical, and stay safe.