Since surging past $85,000, bitcoin appears to have continued building bullish momentum, breaking above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Analysts are still watching $90,000 closely. This important level is the 200-day EMA and may determine where the crypto-asset goes next. Fulfilling bulls’ expectations A successful break above this resistance could pave the way for a major surge, possibly targeting the $137,000 mark.
Combined with current market dynamics, such as technical patterns and U.S. Treasury liquidity injections, the fundamentals have lit a fire of bullish euphoria among analysts. If Bitcoin fails to break above the 200-day EMA it could find Bitcoin stuck under the $85,000 barrier, postponing the expected market surge. The 50-day EMA is closely being watched as a further indicator of any developing bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization reached astonishing heights of more than $1.7 trillion. With a back-breaking $28.7 billion in crypto traded over the past 24 hours, the recent mania is clear at a glance. The coming weeks will be decisive for Bitcoin. They’re the ones who will determine whether it can continue its brilliant bullish run and achieve those lofty price expectations.
Technical Indicators Point to Potential Upside
Bitcoin’s latest volatility in price has captured the imagination of technical analysts. They’re drawing attention to specific trends and markers that could indicate room for more improvement or progress. The most notable technical pattern is the development of a bull pennant on the daily chart.
As Titan of Crypto tweets, this formation points toward a bullish breakout to new all-time highs.
“Bitcoin has formed a bull pennant on the daily chart. If it plays out, a new ATH could be reached,” - Titan of Crypto
The analyst attested that what would be more important to watch is the price action in the next week to validate the breakout.
“If it plays out, a new ATH could be reached — right against current market sentiment. Let’s see if price can break to the upside in the coming week!” - Titan of Crypto
The bull pennant isn’t the only thing dictating the future course of Bitcoin. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs have historically been very influential in determining its outlook. In technical terms, the 200-day EMA, which is sitting around $90,000 right now, is a big resistance point.
A close higher would confirm the development of a strong bullish trend and could attract the buying of this buying level. On the contrary, the inability to break above the 200-day EMA may result in a range-bound bottom formation or downtrend reversal.
The 50-day EMA is in focus here, as a measure of short-term momentum. Any advance above the 50-day EMA will increase the bullish momentum. This increase in bullish demand will significantly increase the likelihood of a test of the 200-day EMA.
The Role of Liquidity and Halving Events
Beyond this deep technical analysis, there are significant fundamental factors pulling the outlook for Bitcoin in this direction. One big factor is the U.S. Treasury’s TGA drawdown, which is putting a bunch of liquidity into the market. This influx of institutional capital could serve as further rocket fuel for Bitcoin’s current rally.
In the past, Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed following halving events. Each of these events shark the availability of fresh Bitcoin coming into the market. These situations usually are a recipe for creating scarcity and increasing demand which leads to significant price spikes.
The most bullish scenario has Bitcoin reaching $137,000 in July/August 2025. This bullish projection is based on the bullish pennant pattern, the U.S. Treasury’s recent liquidity injections, and Bitcoin’s historical performance post-halving events.
And while $137,000 is an ambitious target, the analyst points out that considering historical data makes it sound totally doable. The historical rally of Bitcoin’s price right after past halving events has been between 50% and 600%. The analysts recommend raising the bar by adopting a stricter target. We think a $100,000-$120,000 range for the second quarter would be a more realistic floor to expect.
Market Sentiment and Alternative Perspectives
For every bullish analyst envisioning a $1 million Bitcoin in the near future, it’s worth giving due diligence to the other side of the coin. Market sentiment is a capricious thing, and developments both positive and negative can turn market momentum on a dime.
Geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and regulatory developments are just the latest factors that have moved the Bitcoin price. Others analysts argue that during periods of major uncertainty, conventional safe-haven assets such as gold will outperform Bitcoin.
“We are in a period of extreme uncertainty with escalating geopolitical tensions, global economic fragility, and a pervasive risk-off sentiment. Gold, not Bitcoin, has resumed its role as a safe-haven asset in this climate.” - Kretov
Nevertheless, even with these concerns, optimism is cautiously returning to the Bitcoin market. From institutions and governments to mainstream retail investors, Bitcoin is growing at an astounding rate. This increasing acceptance, along with the rapid maturation of the blockchain ecosystem, supports a positive long-term outlook.
The possibility of higher market volatility creates both risks and opportunities. Traders have the opportunity to profit from price movements, but they should recognize that they risk losing money just as easily.
“There’s going to be decent volatility, a lot of trading opportunities,” - Kretov
