The cryptocurrency market is dangerously filled with predictions, especially ones not rooted in analysis. One XRP price prediction is even bolder, with the decentralized token possibly reaching $3.65 by 2025. This forecast, described by the author as “insanely parabolic,” deserves a much deeper examination, breaking down the methodology, possible drivers and underlying dangers. Eleanor Brooks, a seasoned blockchain researcher, joins us to unpack this prediction, presenting readers with a practical, sober view.

Decoding the Fractal Analysis

Perhaps the most important piece going into the $3.65 prediction is the fractal analysis of XRP’s long-term chart. Fractal analysis is the practice of looking for these repeating shapes in price action. With today’s analysis, I am leaning towards XRP’s current chart making a fractal that looks like its 2017 rally. This pattern is the first bullish sign of a large accumulation phase, in the process possibly creating a multi-year “W” formation.

Bullish Fractal Breakout

The theory goes that XRP has to defend $2.00 hard. If it does, a fractal bullish breakout might be on the cards. This would pretty much confirm the bullish weekly fractal pattern and lay the groundwork for a massive price rally. It’s important to keep in mind that fractal analysis isn’t magic. It depends on the past behavior reoccurring, which isn’t a sure thing in the rapidly-changing crypto space.

Technical Indicators

Despite the potential bullish fractal analysis, other technical indicators suggest a more bearish approach. XRP price is now trading under key moving averages. These consist of the 4-hour 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.27, the 100-period EMA at $2.25 and the 50-period EMA at $2.22. These prices become strong overhead resistance, and XRP must reclaim them to confirm the bullish XRP price prediction. Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator (MACD) has already flashed a sell signal. This may indicate upcoming overhead pressure and opens the door for a near-term price decline.

Potential Catalysts for Price Surge

Outside of the technical perspective, a few possible catalysts might push XRP to the $3.65 level.

Spot XRP ETF Approval

As such, perhaps one of the most highly anticipated of all these catalysts is an approval of a spot XRP ETF. Applications in the pipeline As of August 2023 there are a number of applications pending. Most think that at least one of them will get approved before the end of 2025. Speculation aside, an ETF would provide a more accessible means for institutional and retail investors to invest in XRP. This added convenience might increase demand, raising the price.

Key Events

Upcoming events could serve as catalysts. XRPLAPEX Singapore, June 10-12, is one of those events. Secondly, it could result in driving mainstream adoption of XRP. There's speculation that the SEC might approve a spot XRP ETF application from Franklin Templeton around June 17, which could provide a significant boost to XRP's price.

Counterarguments and Risk Factors

Those potential catalysts combined with a fractal analysis make for a positive outlook. We need to acknowledge the counterarguments and the risks.

Market Dynamics

In the short-term, XRP continues to experience significant overhead pressure, showcased by its repeated failures to pierce important moving averages. Using technical analysis we find very important resistance points at $2.22, $2.24 and $2.29. Not beating these levels would be a serious setback to its hope of moving toward $3.65. A 14% drop in daily trading volume to $3.53 billion further indicates that trader appetite is lacking. Market participation this low wouldn’t be able to sustain any new price rally in the first place.

Regulatory and Market Risks

The cryptocurrency market is just as volatile as XRP itself, so keep that in mind. Its price can drop dramatically and quickly, causing investors to lose money. The regulatory landscape regarding cryptocurrencies remains in flux, and further adverse regulatory developments may affect the value and/or use of XRP. Regulatory actions and legal uncertainties can create unique risks for investors. As evidenced by market catalysts such as regulatory approval for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), XRP price is highly sensitive to sudden high-impact drivers. It’s especially important to understand these market trends to chart a path through turbulent waters.

Investment Strategies

Here are a few potential strategies:

  • Long-term Hold (Low Risk): Buy and hold XRP for an extended period, ignoring short-term market fluctuations. This strategy is suitable for investors with a low-risk tolerance who believe in the long-term potential of XRP.
  • Dollar-Cost Averaging (Medium Risk): Invest a fixed amount of money in XRP at regular intervals, regardless of the market price. This strategy helps reduce the impact of market volatility and is suitable for investors with a medium-risk tolerance.
  • Swing Trading (Medium-High Risk): Buy XRP during price dips and sell during price surges, aiming to profit from short-term market movements. This strategy requires frequent market monitoring and is suitable for investors with a medium-high risk tolerance.
  • Scalping (High Risk): Make multiple small trades in XRP, taking advantage of minor price movements. This strategy requires intense market monitoring and is suitable for investors with a high-risk tolerance.

Either way, only time will tell if XRP will be able to reach $3.65 by 2025. The prediction is based on fractal analysis and possible catalysts. Alongside this, it’s important to acknowledge the real risks and counterarguments at play. Please note, the above is only meant to be a guide that investors should supplement with their own independent research and/or due diligence.