Publicly traded Coinbase’s stock had soared more than 40% so far in 2025. Within the last three years, it is up an incredible 500%. That staggering growth is powered by a mix of regulatory victories, smart expansions, and optimism in a robust market. Bernstein analysts last week raised their price target on Coinbase to a street-high $510 from $310. They attribute this momentum to increasing stablecoin income and an uptrend in institutional adoption. According to Bernstein, Coinbase is "the most misunderstood company in our Crypto coverage universe," highlighting that the bearish predictions surrounding the company have not materialized.
Coinbase has similarly deepened its entrenchment within crypto infrastructure. In September 2023, it became the first exchange to gain a MiCA license under the European Union’s new regulatory framework. Separately, The Block reported that Circle had launched a new, USDC-based platform that’s connected with Shopify to help retailers process global transactions in USDC more easily. All of these advancements, combined with possible positive impacts from the GENIUS Act, have greatly increased investor confidence in Coinbase’s long-term prospects.
It provides investors guidance on when to buy, hold, and sell while balancing the potential for upside against the natural risks of the crypto space. BlockchainShock explores the details of the GENIUS Act, the MiCA license, and Bernstein's optimistic price target to offer a comprehensive understanding of Coinbase's current position and future potential.
The GENIUS Act and Stablecoin Implications
The GENIUS Act is an important piece of legislation that regulates the issuance and exchange of stablecoins. Stablecoins are a type of digital dollar designed to maintain a stable value. They do this by being backed or pegged to a credibility reserve asset such as the U.S. dollar or gold. The Act seeks to regulate payment stablecoin issuers, including nonbank entities approved by the Comptroller of the Currency, to ensure stability and protect consumers.
The Comptroller of the Currency will promulgate regulations and issue orders. These steps might help protect the safety and soundness of each new nonbank approval that it greenlights to issue payment stablecoins. This regulatory oversight is intended to help address risks stemming from stablecoins, including potential runs on reserves and systemic instability.
As short as it seems, the GENIUS Act could offer a huge opportunity — and a great risk — for Coinbase. On the one hand, regulatory certainty could go a long way towards legitimizing stablecoins, making them more attractive for use and spending on Coinbase’s platform. Conversely, stringent compliance requirements might raise their operational costs and stifle the flexibility that we have discussed might make Coinbase’s stablecoin offerings unique.
MiCA License: A Gateway to European Expansion
The conclusion of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation represents a significant achievement. Its goal is to establish a single legal framework for crypto assets throughout the European Union. Coinbase has recently obtained a MiCA license. This strategy shift uniquely embeds the company to benefit from growth and stability in the European market. Here's a breakdown of the key benefits:
- Legal Framework: The MiCA license allows Coinbase to operate legally within the EU's legal framework for crypto assets, providing a clear and consistent regulatory framework.
- Compliance: Obtaining a MiCA license demonstrates Coinbase's commitment to compliance with EU regulations, enhancing its credibility in the European market.
- Cross-Border Operations: The MiCA license enables Coinbase to operate across the EU, providing its services to customers in multiple countries without the need for separate licenses.
- Credibility and Trust: The MiCA license builds trust with European customers, as it ensures that Coinbase meets strict regulatory requirements, including anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) protocols.
- Growth Opportunities: The MiCA license can facilitate Coinbase's growth in Europe by allowing it to offer a wider range of services, such as portfolio management of crypto-assets, and to expand its customer base.
Coinbase has been awarded the MiCA license. Now, it can easily provide its services throughout the EU without needing individual licenses for every nation. This reduction of complexity and confusion reduces the administrative burden and time spent on programmatic paperwork. It increases the company’s capacity to scale their operations and serve more customers.
By committing to MiCA’s high standards, Coinbase is further solidifying its place as a trustworthy and reliable platform. Higher level of trust accelerates user adoption. The more users that participate, the higher the trading volumes, pushing the company’s rapid revenue growth.
Bernstein's Bullish Outlook: A $510 Price Target
Bernstein analysts expressed increased confidence in Coinbase’s positive long-term trajectory. Additionally, they have a street-high price target of $510 for the company. This optimistic outlook is based on several factors:
- Higher earnings projections: Bernstein analysts revised their earnings estimates upward, reflecting rising income across both trading and non-trading segments.
- New growth drivers: The firm identified new growth drivers, including the potential benefits from the GENIUS act stablecoin legislation and Coinbase's diversified business lines.
- Revised valuation framework: Bernstein updated its valuation framework, using a 25x end-of-2027 P/E multiple, in line with peers, to arrive at the $510 price target.
- Stronger growth from derivatives, staking, and stablecoin-related revenue: Bernstein updated its model following Coinbase's Q1 2025 results, which showed stronger growth in these areas.
- Coinbase's dominant position in the US crypto market: The firm noted Coinbase's dominance in US crypto trading, its largest stablecoin business amongst exchanges, and its position as the only crypto-native firm in the S&P 500 index.
Bernstein’s bullish analysis points to Coinbase’s growing ability to generate revenue from non-trading fee sources, such as staking rewards and stablecoin transactions. This broadens the company’s business moonshot beyond being dependent on trading volumes and helps the company become more resilient to adverse market conditions.
Bernstein’s analysts cited Coinbase’s leading position in the U.S. crypto market as a major competitive key. Coinbase is currently the largest crypto exchange in the U.S. It is highly defensible due to its huge, engaged user base and strong, well-known brand.
Investment Perspective: Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Considering the factors outlined above, investors have a tricky decision ahead when it comes to Coinbase stock. The company’s regulatory victories, surgical strikes into high-paying but concentrated markets, and optimistic analyst projections paint a picture of upside potential. The optional volatility of the crypto market itself and the fast-moving regulatory environment are risks, too.
Long-term, high-risk investors might find in Coinbase a great buy opportunity. The firm’s strong market position, diversified income streams, and proactive method to regulatory compliance have placed it for continued growth.
Risk-averse investors usually prefer to continue to own their current Coinbase shares. They keep a keen eye not only on the performance of the company, but on overall market conditions. This method enables them to capture the upside without exposing themselves to the downside. Investors will want to watch the progression of the GENIUS Act and MiCA regulations closely. They need to track Coinbase’s performance in capturing these opportunities as well.
Whether you should buy Coinbase stock or sell it depends on your individual investing strategy. Think about your risk tolerance, how comfortable you are with the crypto market, and then decide. However, as always, doing your own extensive research and speaking with a qualified financial professional should be your first step before investing in any asset.
