Now everyone is talking about XRP’s “victory” over the SEC. Seen from my vantage point in Southeast Asia, I believe this to be a dangerous mirage! We are supposed to be wowed by the optimism of the Ripple settlement, but XRP is still losing money. At the same time, the bottom is falling out on price. Doesn't that smell fishy to you?
Is This Win Really a Win?
Let's be real. The case was brought against Ripple by the SEC back in December of 2020 for what they called unregistered securities sales. A judge ruled that secondary XRP sales are not securities. Institutional sales during funding rounds were deemed to violate securities laws. Ripple and the SEC have jointly moved to unshackle $125 million in escrow. They’ve proposed that the SEC be awarded $50 million as a civil penalty, with Ripple getting $75 million returned.
Fifty million dollars! That's not exactly pocket change. And the reality that XRP can’t find its footing even with this apparent win shouts that something rotten is afoot. Is this really the “regulatory clarity” we asked for and were supposed to receive?
Think of it this way: you get into a fight, "win" by paying the other guy off, and then your stock price plummets. Would you call that a win? I sure wouldn't.
Southeast Asia Feels The Pain
As XRP enthusiasts pass the hat, here in Southeast Asia we’ve seen the hype. All of them were lured by the potential to provide rapid, inexpensive cross-border payments — especially important for remittances. The regulatory uncertainty has been a devil of a mess. The SEC case loomed large, suppressing adoption.
While Western media may depict a rosy picture, in reality, many Southeast Asian investors are disappointed. Yet they are jilted by the fact that XRP hasn’t lived up to those expectations. They still believed in the dream and now after believing and investing they’ve seen their dollar investments dry up even after this supposed “win.” It’s the equivalent of being sold a ticket to a tropical getaway and then receiving a sand castle that repeatedly crumbles.
Imagine the small businesses out there that were waiting to use XRP for faster, cheaper international transactions! They’re now left with uncertainty and losses. Easier said than done on this “regulatory clarity” front, we all know that, but the reality seen on the ground is much more complex and painful.
Geopolitics & Technicals: The Real Culprits?
Okay, let's talk about the elephant in the room: the Israel-Iran tensions. When the world is fraught with turmoil, and especially war, investors rush toward safe havens. Gold, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen… and certainly not unstable cryptocurrencies. This is most acutely the case in Southeast Asia, where political stability is sometimes tenuous at best.
It's not just geopolitics. The charts are flashing red. XRP just confirmed a very nasty bearish head-and-shoulders formation that suggests even deeper losses below $2.00 at the very least.
- Head-and-Shoulders: A bearish pattern indicating potential price decline.
- Neckline at $2.285: Breaching this line signals further downward movement.
- Resistance at $2.33: XRP struggled to maintain momentum above this level.
- Support at $2.25: Key level being tested, with a potential decline to $2.234 if it fails to hold.
Imagine it as a rollercoaster just before it starts its steep downward drop. You don’t want to believe it’s due to drop, you want to believe it’s going to spike back up, you’re hoping the physics are wrong. The volume analysis tells a story too. High volume on the decline, and then a bounce up with decreasing volume? That indicates weakening buying interest.
Don't Be Fooled By The Hype!
According to Standard Chartered, XRP could hit $5.50 by the end of 2025, fueled by expected ETF approvals and growing adoption from institutional players. In spur growth, they project $8.00 in 2026 and $12.50 by 2028. CoinDesk’s AI model predicts a price of $2.85 by the end of July 2025, assuming the continuation of present-day momentum and trading volume trends.
Franklin Templeton has a pending application for an XRP spot ETF, with a decision due later this month (June 2025). Some market observers are estimating an 88% or greater chance of approval.
Still, even if one of these ETFs is approved, will it succeed in addressing the fundamental woes? I'm not so sure.
XRP’s triumphant SEC settlement XRPs victory would appear cut and dry, but the price action is a different story. Despite the promise and potential from a Southeast Asian perspective, the crypto market is still dangerously volatile. It’s a shameful conclusion to the lack of regulatory clarity which continues to be a dream never fulfilled. Don't let your emotions cloud your judgment. Stay safe out there. This “win” could simply be the prelude to an even larger tumble.
Here's what I urge you to do:
- Don't be swayed by the hype.
- Do your own due diligence.
- Understand the risks.
- Consider the geopolitical landscape.
- Look beyond the headlines.
XRP's SEC settlement might seem like a victory, but the price action tells a different story. From a Southeast Asian perspective, this is a stark reminder that the crypto market is still incredibly volatile and that regulatory clarity is still a distant dream. Don't let your emotions cloud your judgment. Stay safe out there. This "win" might just be the setup for a bigger fall.